01/08/2011

ISM report in U.S. worst i two years makes indices fall steeply.

The stock indices in Europe and the U.S. started on upside on positive news about solving the debt ceiling crisis but markets fell sharply to new lows on U.S. ISM report. Very positive news on the debt ceiling from both parties and the President made the Dow and SP500 close even.

It is expected that the debt ceiling bill will pass congress tonight and immediately be sent to the President.
During Tuesday the markets will likely have priced in this long awaited law. However there will be very troublesome days ahead with eventual downgrading of U.S. debt.

The more interesting thing for the long term stock markets trend was the ISM reading that came in far below expectations. The manufacturing index which is a leading indicator by three to five months was the worst since 2009. This index is built on questions to managers who knows how much the industries want to supply their manufacturing. In the reports from the industries for the second quarter, firms might not have noticed the slippage since it will show up later in the year.

More worrisome is that Brazil, China, Russia, the UK, Spain and Greece have the same problem which means the economies are slowing down much faster than expected.

The Swedish index SWED30.I which is in a bear market broke very important support level and closed down to august 2010 level. Why this index is so important to watch is because it was the first to break on downside 2007, first to hit a bottom in 2008 and the first index to become a bull market in 2009.

The bear markets are still in tact that is SWED30, CAC40, MIB and IBEX. We are now waiting for FTSE, Dax, which use to be the last, and the Dow and SP500.

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