27/09/2011

US and Europe moves up Tuesday, but one hour before close steep fall occurs in all indexes.

Dow's up trend which went on until CET 21:30 topped at 11.369 and fell the last hour to close at 11.190 which is below the rising 2 hour trend's 8 MA telling me that the up trend's top might have been seen just below a very strong resistance point. Not until this 8 MA (8 closes in a row divided by eight added every second hour) turns down will the trend be in danger.
FTSE and DAX did exactly as the Dow and closed down. DAX managed to close a two week old gap before falling. CAC,MIB and IBEX also closed their gaps. CAC which is the only one in this group which is being traded in the US until its close, performed exactly as DOW, FTSE and DAX. All indexes in Europe use to follow Dow exactly and it seems like the last five weeks when they have diverted is over and we are back to normal again. Dow says it all.

SWED has its gap at 929.05 which might be closed at open Wednesday. The daily chart for SWED does not point to a real uptrend yet because the MA:s are wrongly placed. A jump and then it might be over for this time.

What Asia do between 02:00 and 08:00 is difficult to predict, they can only trade the US indexes but the result may spill over to Europe which opens 09:00. My best guess is that the trend will change while Europe is open that is before 17:30.

Tomorrow is the first interesting Parliament voting taking place and that is in Finland which wanted a collateral to vote yes. This result if negative will send the market down rapidly. Germany votes Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday - Friday will probably be very choppy. If the 2 hour trend moves down I will sell Dow or Germany just before it starts falling.

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