18/12/2011

Outlook for week Dec 19, 2011

This is the last"real" trading week of the year. Already many participants have  finished trading and many more will leave day by day. This does not mean that the volatility will be low.
The technical picture for the strongest index DOW, shows that the monthly trend is still down, and from the opening on Monday the weekly trend will be down for the first time in three months. The close last Friday below the weekly 8 MA indicates further fall this week from the close 11.855.7. They daily trend is still down and the 2 hour trend turned down on Wall Street the last hours. The strongest resistance point for a rally on upside will be 11.929. I do not think we will see the DOW stay above the 12.000 level more for a long time. There is however  a few indicators which point to a sideways trend this week.

SP500, FTSE and DAX looks the same as DOW.

The fundamental outlook for 2012 seems grim according to many analysts. Mr Rubini says: A eurozone recession is certain, the UK is double-dipping and the US is growing at a snail's pace – fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy year

China is also said to be in for a sharp slowdown.

If this week will be very slow with no big changes I will not comment.







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