FTSE and SWED were already down graded by me to bear markets before Friday. I also said Friday morning that a break down could happen any day from now. I did not expect it to happen the same day.
I think this is the beginning of the big broad bear market I have blogged about for some time. The technical picture tells me that the downtrend from May 2 - the day after the DOW's top - have now started the third wave down. A third wave use to be the longest of the waves. This break happened just a few hours before Friday close so no one seems to have observed it yet. I might be the only analyst who has. Monday will be very exiting and I look forward to the DOW and SP500 trading at 00.00, FTSE starts 02.00, DAX starts 08.00 and Europe opens at 09.00.
I believe we will see action already in Asia and definitely in Europe. I do not know what will happen but this situation reminds me when I followed the market live October 17, 1987 waiting for a reaction the next trading day. Then a so called Black Monday happened with enormous selling. That is why I said in my blog Friday that this could happen now. I have not said it will happen.
I will be watching Asia opening and report what I see during the first hours.
When it comes to the targets I have for the trends I have used my usual mathematical counting in situations like this. They used to be correct. Observe these targets are only for the first move in this long downtrend I think will come so do not take them for a for the end. Often a correction use to start around these points and a move on upside but I have never during 30 years seen a reverse of a break like the one which happened Friday night.
I think this is the beginning of the big broad bear market I have blogged about for some time. The technical picture tells me that the downtrend from May 2 - the day after the DOW's top - have now started the third wave down. A third wave use to be the longest of the waves. This break happened just a few hours before Friday close so no one seems to have observed it yet. I might be the only analyst who has. Monday will be very exiting and I look forward to the DOW and SP500 trading at 00.00, FTSE starts 02.00, DAX starts 08.00 and Europe opens at 09.00.
I believe we will see action already in Asia and definitely in Europe. I do not know what will happen but this situation reminds me when I followed the market live October 17, 1987 waiting for a reaction the next trading day. Then a so called Black Monday happened with enormous selling. That is why I said in my blog Friday that this could happen now. I have not said it will happen.
I will be watching Asia opening and report what I see during the first hours.
When it comes to the targets I have for the trends I have used my usual mathematical counting in situations like this. They used to be correct. Observe these targets are only for the first move in this long downtrend I think will come so do not take them for a for the end. Often a correction use to start around these points and a move on upside but I have never during 30 years seen a reverse of a break like the one which happened Friday night.
No comments:
Post a Comment