30/11/2012

DOW 1 hr trend down but very interesting if 13.000 or below should be todays close.

DOW 1 hr now. The 1 hr trend is down and I expect a cross of the 21 MA at 20:00 or 21:00. Very very interesting trading with small marginals.First line is S line for a move down to break down line.

DOW 15 min trend is down

DOW 15 min now. Trend is down. 8 and 21 MA is falling. 

DOW 30 min trend is down

Dow 30 min now. Trend is down

NAS might turn down on 8 MA downturn

NAS 2 hr now. Nas is falling below 21 MA 2 min before close only. A close here will turn the 8 MA down which is a first warning for downside a downside move. Line S is break down line.

DOW 1 hour trend is up but looks a bit more vulnerable.

DOW 1 hr now. This smaller trend looks a bit more vulnerable for an eventual trend change

DOW still moving up in a strong 2 hr trend

DOW 2 hr now. The trend up is still strong with the 8 and 21 MA moving close to each other in a parallel way.

DOW is trading in Europe above US close Thursday.

Dow 2 hr now. Dow started with a strong rally in Europe but closed in the middle. Now holding that area 13.040. The 2 hr trend is up.
No negative reaction in Europe either on Republican MP's saying nothing has happened to bring "Cliff" to a solution.

The rallies Wednesday and Thursday happened on false premises. ASIA has not reacted to that, maybe Europe and the U.S. will

Fiscal cliff talks turn sour: US talks to avert the fiscal cliff turned sour after Republicans in Congress rejected what they dubbed a “completely unbalanced and unreasonable” offer from the White House in a round of meetings on Capitol Hill. One Republican aide in the House of Representatives said Tim Geithner presented a plan over the decade for $1.6tn in tax increases, $400bn in spending cuts, at least $50bn in new stimulus and a “permanent” lift in the US borrowing limit. The bid by the White House closely tracks its 2013 budget proposal, meaning Barack Obama has so far been unwilling to make any major concessions. Republicans believe the tax increases are too high and the spending reductions are too few. (Financial Times)

DOW is sideways now and will likely end today sideways or up giving December trading a neutral technical start unless no big news happens.

DOW 2 hr now. Dow is holding only 7 points lower than Thursdays close at 07:12 in Asia. Europe opens in less than 2 hours. HSI in China has taken a new high.
Dow's trend is sideways with the strong 21 MA up below the trend holding this direction until close in US. The trading can only continue sideways or go higher as it looks right now today Friday, the last day of the month and week. The monthly and weekly closes will come in at points which will make these two long trends starting December in a neutral long term situation. All this said unless big news happens. SP500 and NAS are moving the same way.

29/11/2012

EURO rallied in tandem with the stock market indexes on the Cliff

Euro 2 hr now.

SP500 1 min chart the index might not get above 1.417.25 now

SP500 1 min now.

SP500 top might be in technically now at 1417.25

SP500 1 min now. Technically 1.417.25 where the index is now could be the top

SP500 is open for a test of 2012 top as it looks now

SP500 month now. The 8 monthly MA will turn up if the index holds above 1.396.55 the last day of the month - tomorrow - at close. Now trading 1.417.25. The trend is strongly up at present

DOW takes new high at 13.026.8

DOW 1 min chart now. I think groups of big money is trying to take new highs to get the best short positions counting on that 12.209 will hold making the 8 months MA still in place and falling during December.

DOW rally is holding but now sideways on 2 hr chart

DOW 2 hr now. DOW's top so far is 13.023.8. The highest 2 hr close is 13.013.8 now trading the third bar at 13.010.8. Very important R point is the falling 8 Month MA at 13.015. Tomorrow after close that point will decrease if DOW holds below 13.209. Very interesting situation and not possible to forecast right now.

The first big Fiscal Cliff rally on rumors started a power full rally just after 16:00 when the market had sold off on bad housing news. Short trades had to be covered all the way back to the top of the trend. Now we must be cautioned about any positive talk about the Cliff in the future. Europes problems are solved for a few months so I expect this to be the new dark horse. To me it seems afterwards as if this was planned by the big money. The Asian indexes made high jumps with big gaps which are still holding 03:00. I think we have to wait until lunchtime in Europe before eventually the markets are back to normal. The daily weekly and monthly trends are still in place so no technical damage there so far.


28/11/2012

NAS fall and rally seems to ebb out.

NAS 2 hr now. Rally seems to subside and hold below falling 8 MA

DOW falls sharply then takens av new high

DOW 2 hr now.

FTSE 250 is beeing pushed down by 8 MA. Watch up for a fall by this Britain's strongest index for years

FTSE 250 week now

GOLD is falling sharply

GOLD day now

NAS is falling

NAS 2 hr now

SWED will not take a new top. 2 hr 8 MA will start falling at 17:00

SWED 2 hr now

SP500 is falling to test S point at 1.388.98

SP500 2 hr now. Trend seems to aim for a test of lower S line at 1.388.98.

DAX is in a down trend with a new low

Dow 2 hr now.

The Euro accelerates downtrend

EURO 2 hr now.

DOW is down to test 12.827.7 S line

DOW 2 hr now. Dow is moving down to test S line on chart at 12.827.7

The dollars rise against the yen is in focus of the markets. Here the daily chart

Dollar against the yen, USDJPY is the code.
The yen has been down for years but the last several months a bottom has been built and in September the final low was taken, see the chart. Since then an uptrend has started in 5 waves telling me that a longer uptrend is probable, but first a correction must occur. The daily 8 MA is down so a test of the sharply rising 21 and 34 MA:s could be the target for a correction and a buying opportunity.

GOLD is a difficult bet. Month chart from 2002 and weekly.

GOLD month now since 2002. Gold must take out 1.802  for a run up to the top. 3 trials have been done so far. Here the 8 month MA is rising above the 21 month MA so the main trend is up.


GOLD week now. The top did not reach 1.800 and the 8 week MA is down. I think short trend is down.

SWED daily chart

SWED day now. Holding above rising 8 MA and falling 50 MA. Difficult to give short forecast.

SP500 week, day and 2 hr charts

SP500 week now. Observe the cross from the falling 8 MA and the rising 21 week MA. The chart will follow the 8 MA, 21 MA does not matter after a cross. I think that where the 8 MA has hit the bar at 1.403 will be difficult for SP500 to take at Friday close. The bar is also currently below the 1.397.03 S point - see thee line.

SP500 daily chart now. Still hanging around the 8 day MA.







SP500 2 hr now. Trend down to sideways now.

IBEX week, day and 2 hr now. Still a positive trend

IBEX week now. Several weeks sideways with the rising 21 week MA under. Looks OK to me.





IBEX day now. Does look less stable







IBEX 2 hr now. A beautiful one month chart with everything an analyst could wish. A close to double top and the 2 hr trend is down. Target could be the bottom. On the other hand it could also be a third wave top and a four wave bottom is being built. Just have to wait and see.

FTSE 2 hr trend still down.

FTSE 2 hr now. The index has not tested the break down line in the chart yet. It also has a gap from the opening which must be closed.

DOW is moving sideways to down

DOW 1 hr now.

DAX trend shifts from up to sideways

DAX 2 hr now

Euro has just taken new low at 1.2911

DOW 2 hr now.

DOW small movements in Asia. Holding just below Tuesdays close. 2 hour trend down.

DOW day now. Dow is holding below rising 8 MA and falling 21 MA one  hour before Europe opens. 2 hour trend still down see chart below.




DOW 2 hr now.