20/07/2014

All things considered

The US indexes are in the fifth and last wave from the start of the up trend in March 2009. The bull market is now 5 years and 4 months old. There are just a few bull markets which have lasted longer since 1900. The charts below shows the current situation in daily line charts. There are two main options. Firstly the high is very very close or has been seen. Secondly a blow out on upside will start soon with the final highs very much higher. The monthly and weekly charts are strongly up. The daily charts are hesitating to go higher than just a few points or the high has just been seen. There are technical support for both of these options.

The next two weeks most of the SP500 companies will show their results for the second quarter and eventually say something regarding the outlook for the rest of the year. Since we are at a breaking point it is very important to see the daily reactions effect on the charts. Good and bad results will be mixed for ten trading days which might lead to continued quick ups and downs on a daily basis. I will concentrate on the daily charts since current picture is easy to follow.

The Gaza war and especially the question who shot down the Malaysia air plane will be in focus as well.

Here is the strongest weekly index since 2009, NASDAQ 100 with comments below
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The waves are in the last final wave which has already done five small waves within but there are often extensions in a situation like this, if that does not happen the last wave has reached its high. Remember this is a Weekly chart and a new sustained close will come Friday after close.

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