04/11/2014

All things considered

All indexes behaves and look the same the last few days. Currently there are three daily bars at the top and the 2 hr charts follow each other nearly exactly. When next break come I expect them to move together. SP500 is the key index which seems to be the leader. I still prefer to follow SP500 and DAX in detail and only show the rest of the indexes now and then when there is time.

Now sideways for the third day to take and hold new highs, continue sideways or break on downside. These are the options. The daily trends have only one indicator to me and that is the rising 8 MA. As long as that is up the trend will be up even if it moves sideways. The interesting charts are the 2 hr which will signal a break on up or downside well in advance as usually. Here as well the 8 MA  shows the way but it can change direction and in a sideways trend the bars can break up and down within the range without any notice how the MA:s move. A special combination of 8, 21 and 34 MA must be in place for a clear direction out of the sideways trend. So far 8 and 21 are in place for downside but the 34 points to further sideways movement. The MA:s are only one of 20 indicators I use and is easiest to explain.

Dax is being held down by the daily 50 MA right now. DAX has also reached FIB 61,8 percent at that high so right now I think the top is in. But I am not sure yet. As usual  big news can move the markets quickly without warning. You saw the Japanese news about austerity news three days ago sending all the worlds indexes on upside without warning.


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