11/05/2015

There is no sign of a rally on upside or a sudden drop. The indexes indicate continued sideways trend.

Fundamentally there are nothing in my view that points to much higher highs in the main trends. The technical pictures gives strong support so the trading will probably continue within ranges. SP500 is moving sideways, now in the 13th week and this can continue. A break on upside to new highs from 2126 is stronger than a break on downside below 2038. Next target - if 2121 can hold - is 2134.

SWED use to show the way when big changes are coming. The small investors are very bullish and indexfunds gets lots of money according to papers. This is a clear sign that the top could have been seen already. DAX weekly trend is down with the falling 8 MA but the 21 MA is strongly up. The trading range is currently between these two MA,s.

EURUSD has difficulties to hold above 1.1300 so a test of 1.0800 is a possibility.

The mainreason for buying into the stockmarkets now is simply that there is no alternative for investors. Bonds and commodities are dangerous now. The economies are not giving ground for better economy but the small investors are upbeat of the impressing bull market since 2009 and pushing the indexes on upside. Not until it is clear by the market that interest rates are in an uptrend sellers might come in. A very difficult situation overall to make a longer forecast.


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